Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Several organisations continually conduct opinion polls to gauge voter intention in anticipation of the next United Kingdom general election. The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, which mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Overview§

Several organisations continually conduct opinion polls to gauge voter intention in anticipation of the next United Kingdom general election. The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, which mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of the polls range from the 2024 United Kingdom general election, held on 4 July, to the present.

Graphical summary§

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

National poll results§

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different leading political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stands candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stands candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding, total figures may not add up to 100%. The lead is calculated by subtracting the polling percentage of the first party (shaded in the party's colour, and in bold) by that of the second party (shaded in grey).

Seat projections§

326 seats are needed for a majority. The party with the most seats is shaded in its colour, and where a party reaches the majority threshold, in bold. The party with the second-most seats is shaded in grey. All polls so far have been conducted excluding the 18 seats in Northern Ireland. Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) is the most common methodology for projecting seats nationally. Multiple polling companies have conducted such polling and modelling for the next election, these are tabulated below. Also included are some polls compiled via Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS), a novel model built by JL Partners which uses council by-elections to predict election outcomes. POLARIS polls from January 2025 onwards are also combined with a representative survey data, with the data used shifted to reflect the pollster's most recent national polling.

100 most rural constituencies§

In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.

Northern England and the Midlands§

In April 2025, Survation conducted a survey of Northern England and the Midlands.

Hypothetical: With Great Yarmouth First§

A poll was commissioned for the constituency of Great Yarmouth for a new (although unregistered at the time) party "Great Yarmouth First" led by Rupert Lowe, before the formation of Restore Britain. The sample size of this poll was significantly smaller than standard polling leading to a wider margin of error. Great Yarmouth First was registered with the Electoral Commission as a political party on 4 March 2026.

Different Conservative Party leaders: voting intention and seat projections§

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

With Andy Burnham as Labour leader§

In May 2026, amid Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's run in the 2026 Makerfield by-election and speculation of him challenging incumbent Labour leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, More in Common and Deltapoll conducted national polls with the condition of Burnham as leader. BMG Research then conducted a further poll after Starmer's resignation.

Including Your Party prior to formation§

In 2025, Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana founded a new political party, called Your Party. Before the announcement of these plans, polling was carried out around the idea for a hypothetical new party. After the announcement of the plan for a new party, more polling was carried out.

Seat projections (MRP polls) 326 seats needed for a majority.

Including Restore Britain prior to formation§

In June 2025, former Reform MP Rupert Lowe launched a political organisation called "Restore Britain", advocating a harder line on immigration than Reform UK. Find Out Now were asked by the organisation to poll on a hypothetical new party led by Lowe. In February 2026, Lowe announced that Restore Britain would become a political party.

Tactical voting scenarios§

YouGov has conducted polling on scenarios wherein only two parties appear to have a chance of winning a constituency.

With under-18s§

In July 2025, the Government announced their intention to reduce the voting age to 16 before the next general election. Although the voting age has not yet been reduced by law, after this, some pollsters conducted polling including 16–17-year-olds.

Polling solely among 16–17-year-olds§

Some pollsters also conducted polling solely among 16–17-year-olds, or broke out an oversample of this group.